Algerian journal of Biosciences

APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL IN PREDICTING TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL PATTERN IN THREE CITIES IN NIGERIA

SYLVESTER ODIANA

ABSTRACT

Rainfall and temperature are two key factors to examine while assessing climate change. As such it future pattern need be predicted. It is a challenging task to provide an accurate prediction of air temperature and rainfall because of their complex and chaotic nature. This study aimed at forecasting temperature and rainfall pattern in Sokoto, Abuja and Port Harcourt Nigeria from 1985 to 2050. Temperature and rainfall data of the cities from 1985 to 2023 were retrieved from the archived of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency which were used for the prediction using ARIMA (1, 1,3) model. Kendall correlation coefficient was also used to determined correlations. The Arima model used is a good fit for the predictions. In Sokoto, (P = 0.213 and 0.246 > 0.05 and stationary R² of 0.44 and 0 .461) for temperature and rainfall respectively. The prediction reveals increasing trends of both temperature and rainfall Kendall's tau_b reveals very strong positive correlation between the meteorological parameters and variation in years which are statistically significant (tau_b = 0.884 and 0.572 p = 0.000) for temperature and rainfall respectively. In Abuja, (P = 0.945 and 0.805 > 0.05 and stationary R² of 0.230 and 0 .383) for temperature and rainfall respectively. The prediction reveals increasing trends in temperature and decreasing rainfall. Kendall's tau_b reveals strong positive correlation between temperature and variation in years and negative correlation between rainfall and variation in years which are statistically significant (tau_b = 0.539and -0.519 p = 0.000) for temperature and rainfall respectively. In Port Harcourt, (P = 0.949 and 0.570 > 0.05 and stationary R² of 0.404 and 0 .377) for temperature and rainfall respectively. The prediction reveals increasing trends of both temperature and rainfall. Kendall's tau_b reveals very strong positive correlation between the meteorological parameters and variation in years which are statistically significant (tau_b = 0.914and 0.673 p = 0.000) for temperature and rainfall respectively. Therefore, It could be deduced that temperature and rainfall will continue to increase in all the cities except in Abuja where the rainfall will be decreasing. Effort should be made by relevant agencies to combat climate change.

Keyword: rainfall, temperature, increase, ARIMA, prediction

first wild sighting of mandarin duck (Aix galericulata Linnaeus, 1758) in Algeria at Sidi Abdoune hillside reservoir (Theniet El Had National Park).

Hamid Cherier — 2024-12-30

This studies is the first confirmed wild sighting of the mandarin duck in Algeria, observed 11 December 2020 at Sidi Abdoun hillside reservoir (theniet el Had National Park). Originally native to south-est Asia the mandarin duck were introduced as ornamental bird in Europe in the 18th centry and since established a feral population.

New observation of the Yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella (Linnaeus, 1758) in Algeria.

Belkacem Aimene Boulaouad

New observation of a yellowhammer in the forest of Bordj Zemoura on February 23^rd, 2024, during a winter birdwatching expedition. This observation is considered as the first after thirty years from the last one in Algeria, in addition, this sighting adds to the avifauna diversity of the region. This study aims to document and analyze the presence of the yellowhammer in the forest, enriching our knowledge of bird species in the area.

Foliar Application of Calcium silicate Alleviate the Deleterious Effect of African Armyworm on Maize Plants

Gideon Okunlola — 2024-12-30

Maize is one of the key determinants of food security around the world. In Africa, the productivity of maize is not yet satisfactory, as its yield, quantity and quality of the maize plant is degraded by African armyworm infestation. Widespread indiscriminate use of chemical pesticides undermines the pest control, and therefore the use of biodegradable botanical substances such as Calcium silicate is of utmost importance. Two varieties of maize (TZm-223 and TZm-224) were subjected to different concentration of Calcium silicate at 0, 100 150 and 200 mM. Thereafter, the Calcium silicate was further used to enhanced the growth traits, plant biomass, photosynthetic pigments, antioxidants contents and enzyme activities of maize under African armyworm infestation. The results revealed that different concentrations of Calcium silicate improve the growth traits such as plant heights, leaf area, leaf area ratio, net assimilation rate and plant biomass of the two maize varieties. Chlorophylls and carotenoid accumulation, antioxidant contents and enzyme activities were significantly (p≤0.05) influenced by Calcium silicate. Application of different concentration of Calcium silicate significantly enhanced the leaf area, net assimilation, leaf area ratio, chlorophyll b, total chlorophyll, carotenoid, TSS, SOD and APX of the two varieties of maize under African armyworm infestation. The two varieties of maize responded differently to different concentrations under the infestation. Calcium silicate can therefore stand to be effective measures for improving the yield and productivity of maize and, managing and controlling African armyworm infestation.

Life form and Chorological types spectrum of Succulent plants in Wadi Yabraq and its around, Al-Wadheia, Abyan Governorate-Yemen

Madleen Abdullah obel

The present study was based on extensive surveys and field observation for diversity of succulent plants in Wadi Yabraq and its around, Alwadheea Dist.. In present investigation it is observed about 71 Species belong to 37genera and 21 Families, were identified. The most families plant that contributed in the investigated area were Apocynaceae and Euphorbiaceae. Analysis of the habit shows that Shrubs are dominate with 31 species followed by herbs with 29 species, Trees with 8 species, Liana with 3 species. Investigation of life forms species shows that Chamaephyte are the most important. (49.30%), followed byTherophytes (18.30%), phanerophyte (16.90%) HemicryptophyteS(8.45%), ,Geophytes(4.22%). Among the common regions vegetative, Sudano –Zambezian, were with the highest followed by Endemic and (Sudano –Zambezian Saharo –Arabian (.